There is so much information in the press on a regular basis about the Canadian real estate market and how it is behaving. I have read numerous reports about real estate markets in Toronto and Vancouver and as recently as today March 11th, 2014 in the Globe and Mail Report on Business, on the condo market in Toronto. Further, there have been several reports over the last many months about the Canadian Real Estate market being over valued and in some reports by almost 30%. But just how exactly is the Ottawa market behaving?
In reviewing the statistics for the first two months of 2014 the number of unit sales in January and February were down modestly from the same period in 2013. This is no need to panic with these numbers however. I believe it is merely the continuation of a gentle re adjustment of the market that has been coming since November 2011.
Sales are part of the puzzle in taking the pulse of the market, but the number of available properties for sale is another strong indicator. Although the listing inventory has been accumulating month to month for the last 14 months the number of listings taken in the months of both January and February were almost exactly the same as in the previous year. This helps to stabilize the growing accumulation of the unsold inventory giving Buyers some time to catch up. I have seen a significant difference in the number of days on market. They have climbed to just over 60 days in both January and February. This is a critical piece of information to monitor when selling your home as well as Buying. If your home has not sold within the 60 day window you need to be re adjusting your thinking as well as your expectations about price and begin the process to adjust your list price, if you have not done so already. As a Buyer, if a home has not sold within this window, you may start thinking that the price is out of synch with the current market and perhaps it might be a good property to focus on as an opportunity for a better investment.
The Sale to Inventory Ratio is a good indicator to evaluate the market. It has been up and down for some time but was in balanced market territory for the better part of 2013. However, the numbers reveal that the market was more in a Buyer’s market territory from September of 2013. It does seem to be edging up and as we begin to move into the Spring market we may start to see some changes in all of the above stated variables. If it begins to heat up (like it feels like it has been doing in the last 5 days) then we are likely to see the days on market decrease and the number of unit sales rise. This is great news and would suggest the changing tides and an upswing back into balanced territory.
When the indicators are broken down by category and we examine re sale housing versus condo sales the picture does change. Condos sales are certainly down from the high point.
I believe we have seen a softening in the market overall and for certain, prices in the very high end have been eroding for some time. Overall, I believe we are in a wait and see mode for what the Spring market has in store for the Ottawa real estate market.
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